Market Recap
On Tuesday, spot gold traded near $4,136/oz, hitting another record high of $4,179.47/oz, fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month and rising trade tensions that boosted safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, U.S. crude traded near $58.73/bbl, falling after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a potential oil supply glut by 2026.
Gold
Gold broke above $4,100/oz to another all-time high on Tuesday, as investors anticipated a Fed rate cut and reacted to worsening global trade tensions.
The rally was supported by multiple factors: geopolitical uncertainty, rate-cut expectations, strong central bank buying, and continued ETF inflows.
Analysts from Bank of America and Société Générale both forecast gold to reach $5,000/oz by 2026.
Peter Grant, VP and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, added that U.S. government shutdown risks, trade frictions, and expectations of further Fed easing continue to fuel demand. He also noted that the global de-dollarization trend could push gold to $5,000/oz by mid-2026.
At the NABE Annual Conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the outlook for employment and inflation “has not changed much” since the September meeting, suggesting no major shift in the Fed’s view.
Technical outlook: Gold extended Monday’s strength to reach $4,180/oz before plunging to $4,090/oz, erasing its intraday gains. The rebound to $4,045/oz during the European session failed to restore momentum. On the hourly chart, overbought conditions triggered profit-taking, suggesting fading enthusiasm over trade-war headlines. Analysts warned of potential short-term corrections after such extended gains, noting that sharp pullbacks could occur quickly if sentiment shifts.
Today’s Gold Outlook:
- Strategy: Buy on pullbacks, sell on rebounds
- Resistance: $4,180 – $4,200
- Support: $4,135 – $4,115
Crude Oil
Oil prices fell 1.5% on Tuesday after the IEA warned that by 2026, global oil markets could face a massive 4 million bpd surplus due to rising output from OPEC+ and its competitors amid sluggish demand.
In contrast, the OPEC+ monthly report — including Russia — was less bearish, forecasting a narrowing supply gap as output increases continue as planned.
However, oil executives and major trading houses expect the market to tighten in the medium term, recovering from recent weakness.
Dennis Kissler, Senior VP of Trading at BOK Financial, said ongoing trade tensions will likely remain a key downside pressure on oil prices.
Technical outlook: On the daily chart, oil remains in a downtrend, with MACD lines widening below zero and strong bearish momentum intact. On the 1-hour chart, oil found short-term support near $57.80/bbl, rebounding modestly but staying below moving averages. Analysts expect a limited rebound toward the $61 area before renewed selling pressure resumes.
Today’s Crude Oil Outlook:
- Strategy: Sell on rebounds, buy on dips
- Resistance: $60.0 – $61.0
- Support: $57.0 – $56.0
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