Market Overview
On Monday, gold prices rebounded and reclaimed the $3,300 level, supported by a weakening US dollar. Gold settled at $3,302.21/oz, posting a 5.5% gain for Q2 and marking a second consecutive quarterly increase. Meanwhile, crude oil prices edged lower as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of continued OPEC+ supply increases in August weighed on prices.
Gold Market Recap
Gold prices rebounded on Monday, lifted by a weakening US dollar, reclaiming the $3,300 level. By the close, spot gold rose 0.88% to $3,302.21/oz. Gold posted a quarterly gain of approximately 5.5% in Q2, marking its second straight quarterly rise.
The US Dollar Index continued to decline, falling below the 97 mark and closing down 0.49% at 96.77. For the first half of the year, the index has dropped 10.8%, its worst H1 performance since 1973. Ongoing uncertainty over President Trump’s trade and tariff policies continues to exert downward pressure on the dollar.
Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, noted that the weaker dollar provided some support to gold. However, gold remains range-bound in a well-defined trading band established since mid-May. This sideways movement reflects the market’s cautious stance on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and continued focus on global economic and geopolitical risks.
Citi analysts forecast gold prices to fluctuate between $3,100 and $3,500 in Q3. The late-April high of $3,500 may serve as a short-term ceiling, but looming supply constraints continue to offer structural support for gold prices.
Gold – Technical Outlook
On the weekly chart, gold trended downward last week amid cooling risk-off sentiment, falling below the key $3,300 support level and forming a small bearish candle. The price has broken below the 10-week moving average (MA10), with a bearish MACD crossover forming at high levels, suggesting a possible pullback toward the 20-week moving average (MA20).
On the daily chart, bullish momentum has weakened significantly after a pullback from recent highs. Though this mainly affects the short-term outlook, moving averages remain tightly clustered, indicating a likely consolidation in the near term.
Gold – Today’s Focus
- Strategy: Focus on buying the dip, with short opportunities on rebounds.
- Resistance: 3330–3340
- Support: 3290–3280
Crude Oil Market Recap
On Monday, crude oil prices edged lower, weighed down by easing Middle East tensions and expectations that OPEC+ will continue its production hike in August. By market close, WTI August futures dropped 0.6% to $65.11/barrel, while Brent August futures fell 0.2% to $67.61/barrel.
As geopolitical risk premiums fade and bullish sentiment cools, oil prices are returning to fundamentals-based pricing. Market sources indicate that OPEC+ is expected to maintain its plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August. The full 2.2 million barrels/day hike may even be completed ahead of schedule, adding downward pressure on prices.
In addition, institutions noted that President Trump has publicly called for lower oil prices and urged shale producers to ramp up output. Combined with profit-taking by speculators during earlier Middle East tensions, Brent net long positions fell by 80,000 contracts, intensifying the downward move and sending prices back to pre-conflict levels.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in its Monthly Oil Supply Report that US crude production rose to a record 13.47 million barrels/day in April, up from 13.45 million in March. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, commented: “This potential supply pressure remains underestimated, increasing the risk of further weakness in oil prices.”
Crude Oil – Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, oil remains in a medium-term uptrend despite a large bearish candle. The moving average system still provides support, and the upward trend remains intact. However, the MACD has formed a bearish crossover above the zero line, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a possible shift to high-level consolidation in the medium term.
On the 1-hour chart, prices have been range-bound for several days and have now pulled back from the upper edge of the range toward the lower boundary, maintaining a short-term sideways trend.
Crude Oil – Today’s Focus
- Strategy: Focus on shorting on rebounds, with long positions near support.
- Resistance: 67.5–68.0
- Support: 63.0–62.5
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