Market Update
On Tuesday, spot gold traded near 4000 dollars per ounce, slipping as a stronger dollar and fading expectations for a December Fed rate cut weighed on sentiment. Investors are now watching delayed US economic data for clues on future monetary policy.
WTI crude traded around 59.68 dollars per barrel, edging lower as Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed loadings after an attack, easing supply concerns, though continued strikes on Russian energy facilities kept the market cautious.
Gold
Gold came under pressure Monday as the dollar strengthened and market confidence in a December rate cut weakened. Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to 4068.37 dollars, while December futures dropped 0.5 percent to 4074.5 dollars.
Analysts note that with the US government now reopened, a backlog of delayed economic data will be released this week, potentially offering insight into the Fed’s next steps. FedWatch now shows only a 41 percent probability of a December 25-bp cut, sharply down from last week’s 60 percent.
Traders are focused on Thursday’s US jobs data, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, and speeches from several Fed officials including Governor Waller and NY Fed President Williams.
Technical Outlook:
Last Friday’s strong bearish candle broke below the 5-day moving average, suggesting potential for continued downside. Resistance stands at 4130–4135, with key support near 4045. A decisive break below this level could confirm a broader correction.
Today’s Focus:
Bias: Sell rebounds, buy dips cautiously.
Resistance: 4100–4130
Support: 4050–4030
Oil
Oil eased slightly Monday after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings, reducing immediate supply disruption concerns. Brent settled at 64.20 dollars, WTI at 59.91 dollars, both down 0.3 percent.
Despite the port reopening, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure remain a key risk. ING warns that supply threats are increasing, while the seizure of an oil tanker by Iran adds further tension around the Strait of Hormuz.
Technical Outlook:
Daily charts show oil in a secondary consolidation phase despite a recent sharp pullback. The 1H chart shows support near 58.10 with a developing rebound. Moving averages point slightly higher, indicating potential for upside if momentum holds.
Today’s Focus:
Bias: Buy dips, sell rebounds.
Resistance: 61.5–62.5
Support: 58.5–57.5
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