Market Recap
Gold prices fell sharply on Monday, sliding over 3% to break below the key $4,000 per ounce level as signs of thawing trade tensions reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Investors also turned cautious ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve rate decision.
Spot gold traded near $3,993.84/oz, hitting its lowest level since October 10, while December gold futures fell 2.9% to $4,019.70. Analysts said optimism about a possible U.S.–China trade deal and technical selling drove the retreat after weeks of record-breaking gains.
Meanwhile, crude oil hovered near $61.28/barrel, easing slightly as OPEC’s plan to boost output outweighed optimism about renewed trade talks and fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia.
Gold
High Ridge Futures’ David Meger said, “Signs of a potential trade agreement are reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.”
CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian added that easing trade tensions, combined with technical selling, accelerated the decline.
Despite the pullback, markets still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its Wednesday meeting, with odds near 97%.
Technically, gold remains in a broad consolidation range. The $4,000 level is now a key battleground — a decisive break lower could trigger further downside, while a rebound above $4,050–$4,100 may signal renewed bullish momentum.
Today’s Gold Focus:
- Resistance: $4,020–$4,050
- Support: $3,950–$3,920
Suggested Approach: Sell the rebound, buy on deep pullbacks.
Oil
Oil prices dipped modestly as OPEC+ signaled plans to increase production in December, even as U.S. sanctions on Russia added geopolitical pressure. Sources said Saudi Arabia aims to regain lost market share, pushing the alliance toward another supply boost.
Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial noted that crude futures are “catching their breath after last week’s rally, as easing trade tensions could resolve many ongoing disputes.”
Technically, crude oil remains in consolidation, with the short-term trend turning mildly bullish after three consecutive daily gains. The MACD indicator shows weakening bearish momentum, suggesting further upside potential if prices hold above $60.50.
Today’s Oil Focus:
- Resistance: $63.0–$64.0
- Support: $60.5–$59.5
Suggested Approach: Buy on dips, short on strong rallies.
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