After rallying more than 70% since April, the world’s largest crypto suddenly pulled back around 26% from the top, triggering talk of a crypto crash and a potential new crypto bear market forming.
But here’s the real question: Is Bitcoin in a bear market now… or is this just another mid-cycle shakeout?
It might be too early to call it a bear market.
The macro backdrop, the cycle timing, and even Bitcoin’s own history all point to something different: A reset inside a bigger bull run crypto cycle.
Are We in a Bitcoin Bull or Bear Market?
To call something a bear market, you typically need 30%+ declines, not 26%.
And in crypto, pullbacks between 20–35% are normal, even during aggressive bull phases.
In fact:
- Bitcoin often corrects 25–35% multiple times during bull markets.
- None of those corrections broke the trend.
- Every time, sentiment collapsed before price resumed higher.
So where are we now?
At –26%, BTC is at the lower end of a normal correction, not a structural breakdown.
The question “will Bitcoin keep going up?” depends less on the current dip… and more on what comes next.
Right now, nothing suggests a confirmed bear market. The big picture remains intact.
Bitcoin Macro Still Favors More Upside
Zoom out and look at the macro environment:
• Rates are expected to be cut in the coming months.
Rate cuts have historically boosted risk assets, including crypto.
• There’s growing talk of QE-style liquidity if economic conditions weaken.
More liquidity is better environment for Bitcoin and equities.
• Lower real yields tend to benefit Bitcoin.
BTC behaves like a high-beta macro asset. When yields fall, interest picks up.
Combine all this with ETF inflows and institutional demand, and the cycle still leans bullish, not bearish.
This is why long-term traders believe we’re still early in the current expansion phase.
What Triggered Bitcoin’s Drop?
Here are the real, verifiable factors:
1. Profit-taking after a 70% run
Big funds locked in gains.
Not bearish, just normal market behavior.
2. ETF rotation (BlackRock & Fidelity inflows slowed temporarily)
ETF flows didn’t reverse, they simply cooled down for a few weeks after record inflows.
This pause was enough to let sellers take control short-term.
This ties perfectly with rising interest in:
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF 2025 predictions, as institutions may increase accumulation once macro clarity improves.
3. Miner selling pressure
Post-halving, miners tend to sell more BTC to cover costs.
This selling is structural, not bearish sentiment, and historically lasts 2–3 months.
4. Rate-cut expectations shifted
The odds of a December rate cut have dropped sharply.
That repricing triggered a broad “risk-off” move, not just in Bitcoin, but across stocks, metals, and high-beta assets.
However, and this is key, we still have three missing NFP reports that will be released soon.
If those prints come in weak, they could flip the Fed’s stance, push rate-cut expectations back up, and restore liquidity to risk assets.
All four forces combined created a temporary supply imbalance, not a bear market breakdown.
Rotation Risk: Could Gold Be Stealing Bitcoin’s Liquidity?
Here’s an angle nobody’s talking about, but you should.
Gold is now powering higher, with flows coming back into the metal after months of outflows.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is cooling off.
This raises a valid question:
Is Bitcoin liquidity rotating into gold?
It’s possible, temporarily.
Gold is near its all-time highs.
Bitcoin is still below its BTC all-time high.
When macro uncertainty spikes, some capital tends to rotate from volatile assets (BTC) into “safer” ones (gold).
But this doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s bull run is over.
Historically, gold and Bitcoin can take turns outperforming during different macro phases and then rise together when liquidity returns.
Right now, gold’s taking a breath of BTC liquidity.
But cycles shift quickly.
Technical Outlook: Bitcoin is Not Collapsing
Let’s talk charts.
Bitcoin is still holding long-term higher lows.
The structure hasn’t broken, it’s cooling off, not falling apart.
And here’s the important part nobody remembers:
The exact same dump happened in March 2025.
Triggered by tariff fears, Bitcoin fell more than 30%, much deeper than the 26% we are seeing now.
Yet it didn’t trigger a bear market, it didn’t invalidate the cycle, and it didn’t kill the bull trend.
After that dump, Bitcoin consolidated, sentiment reset, and the uptrend resumed.
The current move looks extremely similar.
History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes.
The Cycle Perspective: Still Early, Not Late
Bitcoin cycles typically run 18–26 months after halving.
Where are we today?
Still early.
Mid-cycle corrections are normal.
Fear spikes are normal.
Sentiment collapses are normal.
What matters is the structure, and the structure still looks bullish.
This isn’t the blow-off top of a cycle.
It resembles the middle phase, where over-leveraged traders get rinsed before the trend continues.
Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market Now?
Short answer: No. Not yet.
Longer answer:
- The pullback is sharp but within normal bull-cycle ranges.
- ETF inflows slowed but did not reverse.
- Miner selling is temporary.
- Macro conditions still favor upside (rate cuts, liquidity, ETF inflows).
- The same pattern happened in March and did not start a bear market.
- The big-picture bull structure is still intact.
Bitcoin may still consolidate or shake out weak hands, but nothing so far confirms a true bear market.
This looks far more like a reset inside a bull run crypto cycle than the start of a long downturn.
The question isn’t “Is Bitcoin dead?”
It’s “What happens when the selling pressure stops?”
And history suggests: Consolidation then Accumulation, and then Expansion.
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