Market Recap
On Friday, spot gold traded near $3,984.70/oz, retreating from Thursday’s record high of $4,059.07/oz as a stronger US dollar and profit-taking followed news that Israel and Hamas signed a Gaza ceasefire agreement. US crude traded near $61.48/bbl, also closing lower Thursday after the ceasefire announcement eased geopolitical tensions.
Gold
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday, breaking below the $4,000/oz level it first surpassed the previous day. The decline came as the dollar strengthened and investors took profits following the Israel–Hamas ceasefire.
Analyst Wong noted that while gold and silver may need further consolidation, the key bullish drivers, reserve diversification and rising global sovereign debt, remain intact, keeping the long-term outlook positive.
Gold had reached a record $4,059.05/oz on Wednesday, up about 52% year-to-date amid global geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Central bank buying, increased ETF inflows, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, and tariff-related risks have all contributed to gold’s rally.
Gold Technical outlook:
On Thursday, gold traded within a tight range before breaking below $4,000/oz at midnight. The four-hour chart now shows a potential double-top pattern, with $4,000 acting as the neckline. A confirmed break below this level supports a short-term correction view. Immediate support lies near $3,930/oz, and a deeper decline could target $3,900. However, analysts see this as a mid-term pullback within an ongoing bullish trend unless $3,900 is decisively broken, which could signal a reversal.
Today’s Gold Outlook:
- Strategy: Sell on rebounds, buy on dips
- Resistance: $4,000 – $4,010
- Support: $3,955 – $3,945
Crude Oil
Oil prices fell Thursday after Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement aimed at ending the Gaza conflict.
The deal includes a mutual cessation of hostilities, partial Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. This marks the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace initiative.
Dennis Kissler, Senior VP at BOK Financial Trading, said: “With the Israel–Hamas conflict appearing to wind down, crude futures are undergoing a correction phase.”
Oil Technical outlook:
From the daily chart, oil prices remain below the lower boundary of their trading range, maintaining a medium-term downtrend. The MACD remains below zero, suggesting bearish momentum. On the 1-hour chart, oil faced resistance at $62.30, fell below its moving averages, and momentum indicators turned negative, indicating short-term weakness. Analysts expect prices to continue trending lower in the near term.
Today’s Oil Outlook:
- Strategy: Sell on rebounds, buy on dips
- Resistance: $63.0 – $64.0
- Support: $60.5 – $59.5
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