During early Asian trading on Wednesday, spot gold continued to rise, moving closer to the $4,500 per ounce mark, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions that boosted safe-haven demand. Markets are also focused on upcoming US employment data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Meanwhile, US crude traded near $57.07 per barrel, with oil prices falling on Tuesday as investors weighed expectations of ample global supply in 2026 against uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan crude output following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.
Gold
Gold extended its rally on Tuesday as escalating geopolitical tensions lifted demand for safe-haven assets, while investors awaited key US jobs data to assess the Fed’s policy direction. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,485.39 per ounce, edging closer to last year’s record high.
The US arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend intensified global tensions. Maduro, who has been ousted, denied drug trafficking allegations on Monday.
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, noted that precious metals traders are currently seeing more risk than equity and bond investors, adding that the situation continues to fuel safe-haven demand for gold and silver.
Investors are also awaiting Friday’s US monthly employment report. Markets expect December payroll growth of 60,000, slightly below the prior month’s 64,000. Traders continue to price in two Fed rate cuts this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin said monetary policy will require “fine-tuning” to balance risks between inflation and unemployment.
Morgan Stanley forecasts gold could surge to $4,800 by the fourth quarter, citing falling interest rates, potential changes in Fed leadership, and strong buying from central banks and investment funds.
Technical outlook:
From a technical perspective, after breaking above the 4,400 level on Monday, gold surged during the Asian and European sessions, followed by a pullback during US trading that found support near 4,400. This confirmed a successful top-to-bottom reversal. Gold then resumed its advance, reaching a high near 4,459 overnight, in line with expectations.
With no major data releases influencing the market at present, price action remains driven by technical structure and expectations. As long as the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern remains intact and the 4,400 support holds, the bullish trend remains valid. Gold is expected to extend higher, with 4,500 seen as the near-term target, and the broader trend still biased firmly to the upside.
Today’s Focus:
Trading strategy:
Focus mainly on buying on pullbacks, with short positions considered only on rebounds.
- Near-term resistance: 4,530–4,550
- Near-term support: 4,470–4,450
Oil
Oil prices declined on Tuesday as markets balanced expectations of ample global supply in 2026 against uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan crude output following the arrest of President Maduro.
Brent crude fell 1.7% to settle at $60.70 per barrel, while US crude dropped 2% to $57.13 per barrel.
Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil, said it is still too early to assess the impact of Maduro’s arrest on oil supply and demand. However, he noted that regardless of whether this OPEC member increases output, global oil supply is expected to remain abundant in 2026.
Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted that global oil demand grew by about 900,000 barrels per day last year, below the historical trend of 1.2 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC and non-OPEC supply is expected to rise by 1.6 million bpd and roughly 2.4 million bpd, respectively, between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025. This could result in a surplus of up to 3 million bpd in the first half of 2026.
Technical outlook:
From the daily chart perspective, oil entered consolidation after testing the 54.80 area. Price action remains capped by a bearish moving average structure, keeping the medium-term trend biased to the downside. The broader trend continues lower under the primary trend framework.
On the 1-hour chart, however, oil has rebounded toward the 58.50 level, breaking above the most recent downside swing low. This suggests a short-term shift to an upward bias, with MACD holding above the zero line and bullish momentum dominating. Intraday price action is therefore expected to remain tilted to the upside.
Today’s Focus:
Trading strategy:
Prioritize buying on pullbacks, with short positions considered on rallies.
- Near-term resistance: 59.5–60.5
- Near-term support: 55.5–54.5
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