On Friday, spot gold traded near 4,207.5 dollars per ounce, remaining largely steady as competing forces kept prices in a tight range. Markets are awaiting key US inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path next week. Meanwhile, WTI crude hovered near 59.70 dollars per barrel, with prices closing higher on Thursday, supported by rising rate-cut expectations and stalled Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations.
Gold
Gold prices were little changed on Thursday, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. Investors remained cautious ahead of Friday’s US PCE inflation data, a key indicator shaping expectations for next week’s Fed meeting.
Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent to 4,210.49 dollars per ounce. Price action was muted as rising US Treasury yields offset the support from a weaker dollar. The dollar index fell to a one-month low, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
Market focus has now fully shifted to the September PCE reading. Labor-market signals have been mixed: jobless claims fell to a more than three-year low, yet Wednesday’s ADP report showed a decline in private payrolls. Most economists still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December to support the softening labor market.
Analysts note that gold is likely to remain rangebound in the near term, with prices unlikely to retest the all-time high near 4,400 dollars this year.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold rebounded off the 5-day moving average on Thursday but encountered resistance near 4,228 dollars before pulling back to 4,195 dollars. A weaker-than-expected ADP report later lifted prices toward 4,241, though the metal again retreated toward 4,195. The daily candle closed as a bearish doji with an upper shadow, signaling fading bullish momentum.
Yesterday’s failure to break Tuesday’s high shows lingering caution from earlier declines. Even with positive data, buyers were unable to push gold above the 4,240 zone, suggesting the market may need a technical correction before attempting another breakout.
Today’s Gold Focus
Trading bias: Sell rallies, buy dips.
Resistance: 4,220–4,240
Support: 4,170–4,150
Crude Oil
Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, lifted by rising Fed rate-cut expectations and renewed geopolitical uncertainty as Russia–Ukraine peace talks show no progress.
Brent crude rose 0.94 percent to settle at 63.26 dollars per barrel, while WTI climbed 1.22 percent to 59.67 dollars. Expectations of US rate cuts supported demand outlooks, while a weaker dollar boosted commodity appeal.
Geopolitics provided additional support. Peace discussions between US envoys and the Kremlin ended without breakthroughs, reducing the likelihood that sanctions on Russia’s energy sector will be relaxed anytime soon. That lowered expectations of increased Russian oil supply returning to global markets.
A surprise increase of 574,000 barrels in US crude inventories capped gains, but analysts noted ongoing supply concerns tied to US–Venezuela tensions helped offset bearish inventory data.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, crude remains in a secondary consolidation pattern, with candles alternating between gains and losses while testing the 56-dollar support zone. MACD action near the zero line shows weak downside momentum. A break below 56 dollars would signal a medium-term bearish shift.
Short-term (1H), crude is trading within a well-defined range of 60.00 to 58.30 dollars, with MACD showing mixed momentum and no clear trend. A range-trading strategy remains appropriate for now.
Today’s Focus
Trading bias: Buy dips, sell rallies.
Resistance: 60.0–61.0
Support: 57.5–56.5
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